Global challenges to food security and poverty alleviation

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Conference given at University Paris-Saclay / AgroParisTech on 9 January 2017 as part of Master CLUES (week on Natural resources, food security and poverty alleviation)
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  • 1. Global challenges to food security and poverty alleviation Alain Vidal Université Paris-Saclay, January 2017
  • 2. www.cgiar.org A small quizz… How many extremely poor (< 1€/day) on our planet ? How many poor (< 2€/day) ? In which environment do the extremely poor live ? How many overweight ? How many suffering from obesity? One child dies from undernourishment every 5 hours ? 5 minutes ? 5 seconds ? One adult dies from obesity every 10 hours ? 10 minutes ? 10 seconds ?
  • 3. www.cgiar.org Global challenges to food security and poverty alleviation A global food and nutrition crisis Food (and nutrition) security needs more than increased productivity Received wisdom vs facts on rural poverty 2 examples in Africa and Asia
  • 4. A global food and nutrition crisis
  • 5. www.cgiar.org A food crisis in the developing world 3 billion poor < 2€/day 1 billion extremely poor < 1€/day 800 million undernourished  Mostly in Africa and South Asia  75% are rural poor  Combating hunger starts with reducing rural poverty
  • 6. www.cgiar.org A nutrition crisis… now global
  • 7. www.cgiar.org Overweight and obesity Recent and underestimated Source : NCD Risk Factor Collaboration, 2016
  • 8. www.cgiar.org The nutritional crisis, an unexpected consequence of the food crisis
  • 9. www.cgiar.org Food (and nutrition) security Food security "exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious* food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life" (UN World Food Summit, 1996) * nutrition security refers to essential vitamins and minerals required for a healthy development, esp. of children
  • 10. www.cgiar.org The causes of the global food crisis Long term trends…  Increasing demand – Increasing incomes and shifts in diets, globalization and urbanization  Decreasing supply – Insufficient growth of crop yields, low stocks, shocks on food products supply, climate change, high energy costs …combined with emerging short term effects that exacerbate long term trends  Speculation and biofuels production hit the poorest disproportionately  Uncertainties due to economic instability
  • 11. www.cgiar.org Demography is the main driver Source : UN Population
  • 12. www.cgiar.org Population change 2000-2010 Blue= decrease Red= Increase Data from CIESIN
  • 13. www.cgiar.org
  • 14. www.cgiar.org
  • 15. www.cgiar.org
  • 16. www.cgiar.org Food demand should double by 2050 Tilman & Clark, 2014
  • 17. www.cgiar.org More meat in China, more dairy in India 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 10 100 1000 10000 100000 GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year) meatconsumption (kg/cap/yr) Meat China India 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 10 100 1000 10000 100000 GDP per capita (2000 constant dollars per year) milkconsumption (kg/cap/yr) Milk China India USA USA
  • 18. www.cgiar.org Short time variations of food prices
  • 19. www.cgiar.org Mid-term effects of climate change 19 Evolution of rainfall from 1990 to 2070-2100
  • 20. www.cgiar.org Climate variability will impact on food production Source: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) • Crop yields drop by 2050 under BAU  Maize 16%  Rice 21%  Wheat 42%
  • 21. www.cgiar.org 30 to 40% of our food is lost or wasted !
  • 22. Food (and nutrition) security needs more than increased productivity
  • 23. www.cgiar.org « To achieve food security… …let’s produce more » A simple (yet simplistic) received wisdom, still dominating an ‘engineering’ supply vision of the world Once the response of agribusiness during the 2007 food crisis
  • 24. www.cgiar.org Productivity alone is not sufficient to ensure food security Source: World Bank, FAO
  • 25. www.cgiar.org An evolving discourse, yet intertwinned with the ‘old’ one « Achieving food security requires adequate food availability, access, and use » « Access to water and irrigation is a major determinant of land productivity and the stability of yields » World Bank World Development Report, 2008 « New systems must be built for growing and urbanizing populations, changing consumption and income patterns, and food and energy security demands » World Bank Paper on Investing in Water Infrastructures, 2012
  • 26. Received wisdom vs. facts on rural poverty
  • 27. www.cgiar.org Alleviating rural poverty starts with increasing / securing yields Not always true – farming is less and less the main source of income, around 50% Source : IFAD Rural Poverty Report 2011
  • 28. www.cgiar.org The rural poor produce enough to feed their family False - A majority of the rural poor are not net sellers of tradable food staples (but are buyers or self-sufficient) Source : World Bank Development Report 2008
  • 29. www.cgiar.org 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 ContributionofagriculturetoGDPgrowth(%) Per capita GNI (US$) Burkina Faso Bangladesh Bolivia Brazil India Ethiopia Ethiopia and Burkina Faso in agricultural phase of development India and Bangladesh transitioning to higher value activities Bolivia emerging slowly after decades of low growth Brazil strong growth in the 60’s and in recent years to emerge as an industrial economy General direction Rural poverty and development trajectories
  • 30. www.cgiar.org Agriculture contribution to GDP (%) Most African countries here Evolving economies Gross National Income
  • 31. www.cgiar.org Gross National Income Agriculture contribution to GDP (%) …with specific problems...
  • 32. www.cgiar.org Basic needs Meeting urgent demand growth Emerging need for sustainability Building productivity and capacity while securing and offsetting the risk Invest in agricultural basics and infrastructure Big invest in agriculture Resource-sharing & protection Developing pathways out of farming Benefit-sharing (trading) Demand management Supply-chain management …and dedicated solutions
  • 33. Addressing food security and poverty Two examples LIMPOPO GANGES
  • 34. Livestock – securing and leveraging development in Southern Africa
  • 35. www.cgiar.org Innovation platforms in Zimbabwe create local markets for goats Established around local specific production and marketing systems (auctions) Markets raise the value of one goat from US$10 to $60 Virtuous circle where more money flows to the producer - an incentive for growing stock feed and improving rangeland management "Everyone seems to be operating under the assumption that increasing production will increase profitability, but the reverse is actually true. If you increase profitability, then production will go up." (BMGF report on Innovation Platforms)
  • 36. www.cgiar.org A virtuous circle that triggers change to a more resilient state S SRecurrent droughts, increasing climate variability, poor connection to markets Local markets Producers self-esteem Improved rangeland production replacing US$15 / goat of stock feed value Improved livestock: US$ 50 per goat Goat mortality down to 10% Rainfed maize cropping: US$16/ha Livestock: US$10 per goat
  • 37. Sea-level rise : an opportunity for the poor of the Ganges Delta ?
  • 38. www.cgiar.org Among world’s poorest BBS / WorldBank / WFP (2009) Poverty, food insecurity, vulnerability  75% of households (HH) with 0.2-0.6 ha  HH income US$700/year  80% of population below national poverty line Too much water in rainy season Salinity and lack of fresh water in dry season
  • 39. www.cgiar.org Untapped potential but growing pressure from salinity Huge potential to improve food security and livelihoods Salinity not a constraint everywhere – even an opportunity if water properly controlled Soil salinity None Very slight Slight Strong Very strong
  • 40. www.cgiar.org Sustainable intensification of polders: technical and institutional challenges Lots of viable cropping systems possible with crop diversification, fish and shrimp Need for political changes at national and local levels Canal maintenance and management Shifting from rice monoculture rebalancing powers Rice Shrimp Upper threshold limit of salinity - Rice Date Watersalinity(ppt) Lower threshold limit of salinity - ShrimDaily water salinity
  • 41. A few messages
  • 42. www.cgiar.org Know whom you work for Responding to the specific needs of various farmers categories Privilege inclusive approaches Source: FAO
  • 43. www.cgiar.org Don’t content yourself with simple solutions when facing a complex problem
  • 44. Thank you a.vidal@cgiar.org www.cgiar.org www.slideshare.net/alainjbvidal
  • 45. www.cgiar.org References and links CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF)  www.waterandfood.org International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)  www.ifpri.org  Global Nutrition Report (yearly) The World Bank  www.worldbank.org  World Development Report 2008 on Agriculture Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO)  www.fao.org International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD)  www.ifad.org  Rural Poverty Report 2011
  • 46. www.cgiar.org Photo credits CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food The World Bank WorldFish Center Arte
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